Oil prices fell in early Asian transactions on Monday, giving up some of the gains made in the previous session, driven by a combination of geopolitical and financial factors. In terms of geopolitical developments, hopes of reaching a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas were renewed after the intensification of mediation efforts in Cairo. Hamas sent a delegation to participate in the peace talks, while Israel agreed to listen to American concerns about the humanitarian repercussions of a possible military operation in Rafah.

Overall, these developments have eased tensions in the Middle East. This contributed to the decline in oil prices, as US inflation data for last March showed a slight increase above the central bank’s expectations. This has increased the possibility of lowering interest rates in the future, which may lead to increased economic growth and enhanced demand for oil. Which constitutes a support factor for oil prices in the long term.

However, the outlook for short-term interest rates remains uncertain; The markets are awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting on May 1 to review monetary policy.

The rise of the dollar against other currencies may increase the cost of oil for holders of those currencies. Which may put pressure on prices.

Overall, oil prices oscillate between geopolitical developments in the Middle East and US monetary policy expectations, while peace hopes temper geopolitical concerns, and concerns about inflation and a rising dollar continue to play a role in determining price trends.

The short-term outlook remains uncertain amid conflicting factors; Which makes it difficult to accurately predict the direction of oil prices at the present time.