Forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 present a stark contrast between the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC, along with its OPEC+ alliance.

The Energy Information Administration has recently adjusted its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024, indicating an increase of 180 thousand barrels per day to 1.10 million barrels per day. Additionally, it predicts robust growth for 2025, with an additional 80 thousand barrels per day, totaling 1.50 million barrels per day.

In contrast, OPEC+ has maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 at 2.2 million barrels per day. Within this forecast, OPEC anticipates internal growth of the organization for Economic Cooperation and Development by approximately 200 thousand barrels per day, while the projection for demand growth from outside the organization remains at 2 million barrels per day.

Looking ahead to 2025, OPEC+ foresees continued strong global oil demand growth of 1.8 million barrels per day, consistent with previous assessments. The organization predicts growth in the OECD of 100 thousand barrels per day, while demand in countries outside the organization may increase by 1.7 million barrels per day.

The EIA’s optimistic outlook for demand growth is attributed to improving prospects for global economic growth, particularly in the United States and China. Additionally, the recovery of air travel and sea transportation is expected to drive demand for jet fuel and diesel.

In contrast, OPEC+ expresses a more cautious stance, anticipating a slower pace of global economic recovery with potential risks of inflation and rising interest rates.