Researcher: Ahmed Mahmoud Kamal
The East African region is distinguished by water resources that enable it to be active in the field of hydroelectric energy, between the Nile Basin, the lakes of the Great Valley, and many rivers. Hydroelectric projects are among the most important projects that contribute to achieving sustainable development in East African countries, despite the successive obstacles facing these projects, including lack of financing, weak infrastructure, and lack of expertise.

In this descriptive and analytical report, the Saif Bin Hilal Center provides a monitoring of the projects in this region, whether current or currently being built, and discusses their origins, what they produce, and the cost of their production, and reviews the percentage of clean electricity produced from hydroelectric power stations out of the total electricity production.

Hydropower is an opportunity to revitalize the energy market:
The region has enormous natural resources that make it suitable for the production of hydroelectric energy. It is clear from the numbers shown in the following figure that Ethiopia produces electricity – from 11 dams on its territory – with a capacity of 14 thousand gigahertz, followed by Kenya and Uganda, and this translates into great economic opportunities. Hydroelectric energy is currently responsible for more than 80% of electricity generation in the region, and in general, hydroelectric energy constitutes more than 80% of the total electricity production in that region.

Hydropower projects in Africa: between difficulty and ease

Small projects succeed in Tanzania:
We should not necessarily rely on giant projects. Rather, Tanzania's small experience is one of the successful experiences. The Government of Tanzania signed, in April 2023, agreements for loans worth $300 million, in addition to a grant from the European Union, with the aim of… Supporting development projects, to be allocated to finance the Kakuno hydroelectric power station, which has a capacity of 87.8 megawatts, and is located in the Kagera region in the northern part of Tanzania.

Rugiji 3 Hydroelectric Power Station Project (Tanzania, Burundi, Congo, Rwanda):
Among the medium projects, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda are participating in a joint project for the Rugigi III hydropower station, which is part of the Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) programme. The project includes building a dam on the Rugigi River between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, as well as constructing a power generation station with a capacity of 147 megawatts and a distribution station. This project is expected to contribute to significantly increasing the hydroelectric capacity in Burundi, and will also increase Rwanda’s capacity significantly.

Numbers and statistics reveal the importance of hydroelectric energy on the African continent, according to international studies and reports. A study conducted by the World Bank in 2020 confirms that increasing hydroelectric energy supplies leads to an increase in job opportunities in East African countries by 10%. Which leads to an improvement in the standard of living in the countries of the region.

Perhaps the most important thing that scientific articles and literature have stated is that one of the most important benefits that hydroelectric projects have brought to East African countries is the provision of new job opportunities in the fields of construction, operation and maintenance, in addition to indirect job opportunities, in addition to increasing productivity by supporting productive sectors with the necessary energy. After completion, on top of all this it is also understood that the outcome of all this is an improvement in the standard of living.

In general, hydroelectric projects are among the most important projects that contribute to achieving sustainable development in the East African region, for several reasons: the most prominent of which is the high cost of the projects themselves before they generate a return that covers their cost, in addition to the lack of technical personnel in the African region as a result of the deterioration of education, as well as the effects Environmental issues such as seismic hotspots and changing river courses as a result of climate change factors, which threaten the sustainability of projects, and finally – and the most miserable element – the permanent fluctuations in the political systems in these regions, in addition to cases of social instability.

There is no doubt that hydroelectric energy has a great impact on sustainable development projects, and there is a strong relationship between the two. Below we use evidence through measurable indicators such as the gross domestic product per capita, as it is a strong indicator of the quality of life, and comparing it to hydroelectric projects and what they produce, and determining whether through the literature. Previous or through statistical analysis of the relationship between these variables.

GDP per capita and electricity generated from hydroelectric plants:

A figure showing the relationship between per capita GDP and hydroelectric energy:

The previous figure shows the direct relationship between the amount of hydroelectric energy produced and the GDP per capita in East African countries. The two variables were tracked from the five selected countries (East African countries) in the period from 2000 to 2021; The estimated regression line in the figure shows the proportionality of this relationship in the sample as a whole, and the line has a positive slope, indicating that with every increase in the amount of hydroelectric energy, the per capita GDP increases, an increase estimated at approximately less than half of the increase that occurred in the amount of hydroelectric energy produced.

Accordingly, a Pearson test was conducted for the correlation between the two variables, and the test results showed that there was a positive significant correlation between the two variables. To focus on studying the impact of hydroelectric energy on the GDP per capita, a regression model was estimated, based on longitudinal panel data.

The results showed that there is a significant positive effect of hydroelectric energy on the GDP per capita in East African countries. The model shows that with an increase in the amount of hydroelectric energy produced by 1%, the GDP increases by 39%.

Based on the p value, which is approximately 0.0, the estimated effect is considered statistically significant, but due to the reliance on a simple model and without fully testing the statistical assumptions of the model, the direction of the effect will be relied upon, and it is acknowledged that there is a positive effect of hydropower on the GDP per capita in the countries of Southeastern Africa, consistent with previous studies.

Conclusions:
1- East Africa has the potential to benefit greatly from hydroelectric projects through the widespread stations and dams, whether under construction or already established.
2- The most important obstacles to hydroelectric projects are the absence of political stability and political and economic fluctuations.
3- The existence of a positive, statistically significant relationship between hydroelectric energy and GDP per capita, and the presence of a positive and significant effect of hydroelectric energy on GDP per capita.

Study appendices:
First, Pearson's correlation test

To confirm the relationship between the two variables, Pearson's correlation test was conducted, and the test result shows the presence of a statistically significant positive direct correlation.

Based on the p value, the null hypothesis that the degree of correlation between the two variables is equal to zero was not accepted.

Estimated regression model:

The model was based on longitudinal panel data from East African countries in the period from 2000 to 2021. The natural logarithm of all observations was taken before estimation, and the estimate was made using the fixed effects model as it is a statistically appropriate model in most cases and to take into account individual differences between countries when Appreciation.

The model results show that there is a significant positive effect of hydroelectric energy on the GDP per capita in East African countries, as the model shows that with an increase in the amount of hydroelectric energy produced by 1%, the GDP increases by 39%.

Based on a p value of approximately 0.0, the estimated effect is considered statistically significant.