The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted in its annual coal market report, published in late 2023, that global coal demand would decline by 2026. In 2023, however, coal demand rose by 1.4% and exceeded 8.5 billion tons for the first time.

This change is partly attributed to the increase in coal consumption in developing countries such as China by 5% and in emerging countries such as India by 8%, due to the increasing demand for electricity in those countries.

On the other hand, developed countries such as the European Union and the United States have witnessed a 20% decrease in demand for coal due to the impact of coal use in power generation, which accounts for more than 40% of global carbon emissions.

Despite this, China’s present policies encouraging the growth of renewable energy projects are predicted to reduce the country’s dependency on coal by roughly 2.3% in 2026. China leads the list of nations investing in clean energy initiatives; therefore, by 2024, it’s anticipated that its coal dependency will progressively decline.

This report was issued on the sidelines of the results of COP28, which was held in the United Arab Emirates. This resulted in the historic summit decision to shift away from fossil fuels, including coal. This decision was opposed by some developing countries, including China and India, as coal is always essential for energy security in India and China.