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Supply concerns push natural gas prices in Europe higher

May 2, 2024

Natural gas markets in Europe are witnessing a continued rise in light of bets on continued rise in prices, driven by growing concerns about possible supply disruptions during the coming winter.

Analysis of InterContinental Exchange data for three consecutive weeks shows a significant increase in the number of net long positions in benchmark Dutch natural gas futures contracts, held by investment funds.

This trend indicates that investors are seeking to secure their energy needs in anticipation of any potential fluctuations in the market, especially with the approaching winter season.

Despite the current weakness in demand and the decline in inventories to their highest level ever with the end of the heating season, concerns about energy security still dominate the market. These concerns are due to several main factors, the most important of which is uncertainty about the continued flows of Russian gas through Ukraine. This raises investors' concerns about the possibility of new outages.

On the other hand, demand for gas has increased in Asia, causing competition between Europe and Asian countries, especially China, for liquefied natural gas shipments. Which contributes to increasing pressure on prices.

As these concerns grow, natural gas futures prices rise, although they have retreated slightly from the highs recorded in mid-April, and the markets are witnessing significant volatility as daily fluctuations have become a common phenomenon.