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China is rebuilding its coal and gas reserves, taking advantage of falling prices

May 14, 2024

These days, China is working to rebuild its reserves of coal and natural gas, the two main fuels for generating electricity. In preparation for an expected hot and long summer.

This comes in light of the decline in global prices until the end of April. Natural gas imports witnessed a jump of 21% compared to last year, while coal purchases increased by 13%. This increase in coal imports defies expectations of a decline from the record level reached last year.

As Beijing's 2025 deadline for peak coal consumption approaches, Chinese coal producers are working to limit production increases. As a result, utility companies increasingly rely on imports, which is considered a competitive advantage in light of the relatively low prices of this fuel in global markets.

The Japan-Korea LNG price index – Asia's benchmark price – averaged just above $9 per million British thermal units in the first quarter of the year, down from $18 in the same period in 2023.

Coal futures prices at the Port of Newcastle, Australia, averaged $127 per tonne, down from $236 in the same period last year.

Securing electricity supplies has become a priority for policymakers in China, especially after the frequent power outages that have caused major disruptions in recent years.

With extremely hot summers expected in the Northern Hemisphere, demand for air cooling is likely to increase in the coming months.

The demand for electricity in China continues to grow, including demand from the use of electric vehicles, to outpace new supply despite the significant increase in the country's production of wind and solar energy in recent years. This results in the country's need also continuing to increase. to fossil fuels.

China's electricity consumption is expected to rise by 8% in the first half of this year, with peak demand exceeding last year's record level by 100 gigawatts, equivalent to Australia's entire electricity consumption.

There are signs that China has reached a tipping point at which new clean energy facilities have reached a level sufficient to meet additional consumption. Which leads to a decrease in the use of fossil fuels as well as its emissions in the long term.

Gas and coal prices have also risen in recent weeks; This prompted gas importers to offer to resell summer season shipments, indicating the possibility of a decline in the import boom.