The long-awaited Olmeca refinery in Mexico has started operating, but at only 5% of its production capacity. Which raised questions about the feasibility of the huge project, whose investment cost reached $16 billion, and its impact on the future of energy in the country.

Some suggest that the weak start-up of the refinery, just two weeks before the presidential elections, may simply be an electoral move by current President Andres Manuel López Obrador; To support his party's candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, who opinion polls indicate is ahead of her competitors.

This meager start comes after a series of repeated postponements of the refinery's operation. Which raised questions about the extent of real progress in the project, as the refinery was supposed to start operating at half its production capacity in July 2023, then it was postponed to May 2024, and now expectations indicate that it will operate at only 50% capacity in 2025.

The weak start-up of the refinery confirms Mexico's continued dependence on imports of petroleum derivatives. Which leaves the country vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices.

Data indicate that the refinery will begin producing diesel at the end of this May, while gasoline production will be postponed until a later time.