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Oil prices stabilize as markets focus on US interest and inventories

March 20, 2024

Oil prices witnessed a state of stability, especially after achieving gains that continued for two days. An industry group said US crude inventories were declining, and traders began counting down the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which will shape the markets.

There was no change in the price of Brent crude, as it is still above $87 per barrel after it rose by 2.4% during the first two sessions of this week, which led to raising the benchmark crude oil to its highest closing level since late October. As West Texas Intermediate crude oil reached about $83, the American Petroleum Institute confirmed that US oil inventories witnessed a decline, reaching about 1.5 million barrels, and the gasoline sector is expected to witness a decline as well.

The US central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the fifth meeting in a row later on Wednesday, although policymakers have given a number of hints about when they will be ready to turn to monetary easing, and oil will witness a rally as it will rise well above… The current consensus will range between $70 to $90 per barrel as the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates over the coming period.

Crude oil rose by 13% during the year 2024 after it emerged from a narrow trading range that stopped fluctuations during the first weeks of 2024, as the difference between the supply and demand prices was limited, and the progress was supported by the supply cuts made by OPEC+ in addition to geopolitical risks, including strikes. Ukrainian drones over Russian refineries.

Traders are pricing in a distinct market in which the difference between the bid and ask prices is limited, with the difference between the two nearest contracts for Brent crude for December delivery varying by more than $5 per barrel, which is an upward trend in which the price of the nearest contract is higher than the futures contract, and one month ago the difference was less than $4.