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Indications of the continuation of the current production policy are weighing on oil

March 27, 2024

Oil prices recorded a decline for the second day in a row, during early trading on Wednesday, after a report on an increase in crude oil inventories in the United States, which is considered the largest oil consumer in the world, and indicators showing that the major producers are unlikely to change production policy in a technical meeting scheduled to be held next week.

Brent crude futures contracts recorded a decline in May by 0.8%, or 69 cents, to $85.56 per barrel. The May contract is scheduled to expire on Thursday, March 28, 2024, and the most widely traded June contract also fell by 60 cents, or 0.7%, to $85.03.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May delivery fell by about 55 cents, or 0.7%, to $81.07.

While US crude inventories jumped by about 9.3 million barrels in the week ending March 22, according to figures from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday, distillate stocks rose by 531 thousand barrels, while gasoline stocks fell by 4.4 million barrels.

Three sources in the OPEC+ alliance made statements to Reuters ahead of next week’s meeting, explaining that the group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, is unlikely to make any changes in oil production policy before a full ministerial meeting next June. .

The group is scheduled to hold an online meeting of the Joint Ministerial Oversight Committee on Wednesday, April 3, 2024; With the aim of reviewing the implementation of production cuts by members and the market.

Earlier this March, OPEC+ members agreed to extend production cuts by 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of June.

Reuters added on Monday that Russia ordered companies to reduce their production in order to meet the target, and the Iraqi Oil Ministry also indicated on March 18 its intention to reduce its exports to compensate for exceeding the limits of its production quota earlier.

After these announcements, the ability of OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance to comply with the cuts became questionable, while OPEC exceeded its targets by about 190,000 barrels per day in February, according to a Reuters survey, and Iraq was one of the producers that exceeded their quota.

Analysts at ANZ pointed out that Iraq is among the OPEC+ members that admit to overproduction in recent months, and they said in a report issued today, Wednesday: “Dealers are also monitoring OPEC members for any sign that they may change their position on quotas.” Production".