Dangote's massive refinery in Nigeria, with a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, will put an end to the European gasoline trade in Africa, worth $17 billion annually.

This refinery will lead to the closure of many European refineries that are already facing the risk of closure due to increasing global gasoline production, declining demand for fossil fuels and strict environmental laws.

The Grangemouth refinery in the United Kingdom and the Wesseling refinery in Germany are likely to close ahead of schedule due to the oversupply of gasoline. Coastal refineries dedicated to export will be the most affected, while inland refineries will face less risk due to their reliance on domestic demand.

The energy transition leads to a decrease in demand for fossil fuels; This has led to closure decisions by companies such as Petronius and Shell. Nearly 30 European refineries have closed their doors since 2009, and more closures are expected. Nigeria, despite its large oil reserves, relies on gasoline imports from abroad due to the aging of its refineries.

Dangote's refinery will lead to the loss of the West African market, which is a problem for the small number of European refineries that have the tools to bring the gasoline produced to European and American specifications. The decline in European gasoline exports to West Africa will coincide with the introduction of new environmental laws in northwestern Europe.

Refinery owners can redirect gasoline exports to the United States or South America, but developing refineries is difficult due to banks' fears of lending money to fossil fuel projects.