S&P Global predicted that U.S. oil sanctions policy could undergo significant changes if Donald Trump wins the presidential election, potentially reverting to a maximum-pressure sanctions strategy. However, broader economic factors will influence the nature and impact of those sanctions.

According to S&P Global, the combined crude oil production in Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, the primary targets of current U.S. oil sanctions, was estimated at 13.2 million barrels per day in July. This marks an increase from 11.7 million barrels per day at the start of the Biden administration but a decrease from 16.1 million barrels per day at the start of the Trump administration.

David Goldwyn, head of energy advisory at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center for Commodity Insights, noted, “Whether Democrat or Republican, the broader picture is the first real question.” He added, “If we are in a world of weak oil prices, the balance of risks in the administration is likely to give a lot more space to continue the maximum pressure strategy without significant fear of supply disruptions.” He pointed out that if Trump wins, he is likely to renew his maximum pressure strategy, assuming a different international political climate than the one prevailing in 2024.