The financial firm “Vaughan Nelson” has unveiled a concerning projection: US oil production could see a decline of one million barrels per day by the latter half of 2025 unless the number of active drilling rigs in the country is bolstered.

Adam Rich, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Vaughan Nelson, emphasized the imperative need for additional rigs to offset the natural decline in the productivity of existing wells. He stated, “The United States may sustain its current production level of 12–13 million barrels per day for another six to nine months. However, without a surge in drilling rig deployment, we will inevitably encounter significant challenges.”

Rich underscored that for an upswing in the number of drilling rigs to be economically viable, oil prices would need to ascend to approximately $90 per barrel. As of Monday, US crude oil futures prices hovered around $77 per barrel.

Headquartered in Houston, the firm “Vaughan Nelson” manages a total of $16.4 billion in assets and operates as a subsidiary of Natixis Investment Managers.

Projections indicate a deceleration in growth within this sector. Many of the most prolific reservoirs have been tapped, prompting numerous US producers to adopt a stance of restrained expansion and prioritize returns for shareholders.

The count of active US drilling rigs recently plummeted to its lowest level since January 2022, amidst a wave of consolidations in the oil and gas industry.

The shale oil boom propelled the United States to the summit of global oil producers over recent years. However, as reserves mature and operational dynamics evolve, the landscape of US oil production is poised for notable shifts in the years ahead.